Canada’s defense narrative challenge is bigger than messaging

Canada has a documented gap in monitoring foreign information threats outside elections, but a proposed cognitive-defence network is not government policy and would need a lawful, measurable mandate before it could be tested.

By Land Offset PAI

Sept. 11, 2026

OTTAWA, Ontario — A proposal for a Canadian “cognitive defence” strategy identifies a real problem: the government’s foreign-interference inquiry found no body with a standing mandate to monitor the domestic online information environment for foreign disinformation affecting federal democratic institutions outside an election period. The proposal itself, however, is a private LinkedIn article by Dave McMahon, not a government strategy, program, appropriation, requirement or operational capability. 1 2

McMahon’s Sept. 8 article calls for a private-sector-led, federated cognitive-defence network; a National Centre for Cognitive Resilience reporting to the Privy Council Office; a threat-intelligence exchange; platform algorithm audits; and investment in deepfake detection and provenance tools. It also advocates early warning, public resilience and foreign-facing disruption. Those are proposals, not confirmed Canadian obligations or authorities. 1

Canada already has operational and educational pieces of the problem set. Global Affairs Canada’s Rapid Response Mechanism Canada, or RRM Canada, has monitored the digital environment for foreign information threats since 2018, conducts multilingual open-source research and analysis, and supports federal-election protection through the Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections Task Force. The Privy Council Office’s Protecting Democracy Unit also provides federal public servants with a guidebook and training resources, while government toolkits are available to community leaders and elected officials. 3 4

The distinction matters. The RRM’s stated work is foreign information manipulation and interference, or FIMI; it is not a public license to judge all domestic political speech or establish a universal domestic surveillance program. The Hogue Commission said a standing domestic monitoring function would require a legislative framework that respects privacy rights. It recommended considering an entity to monitor open-source domestic information for misinformation and disinformation that could affect democratic processes, structured to comply with law and able to exchange information with appropriate partners. 3 5

Item What the public record confirms What remains a proposal, gap or test
Threat monitoring RRM Canada monitors the digital environment for foreign threats detrimental to Canadian interests and has open-source monitoring expertise. 3 A standing, specifically authorized domestic open-source function outside elections remains a policy and legislative question identified by the Commission. 5
New institution No announced National Centre for Cognitive Resilience or Canadian Cognitive Threat Intelligence Exchange was found in the cited government records. McMahon proposes both structures and a federated private-sector network. 1
Platform and AI tools Canada offers disinformation guidance and says foreign actors can use social platforms and generative AI. 3 6 Algorithm audits, deepfake-detection procurement and provenance systems are suggested capabilities; no outcomes record or deployment plan is supplied in the proposal. 1
Economic harm Government materials document discrete harms, including more than $300 million lost to investment fraud in 2022. 6 McMahon’s C$50 billion to C$120 billion annual estimate has no reproducible methodology in the article; it should not be treated as a validated national cost ceiling. 1

A narrow public mandate is the workable part of the case

The strongest overlap between the proposal and the official record is narrow. Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue recommended a legal framework for collecting and assessing open-source domestic intelligence with privacy protections, followed by consideration of a compliant government entity focused on misinformation and disinformation affecting democratic processes. She expressly said she was not recommending monitoring all social-media activity or private and semi-private communications of Canadians. 5

That leaves room for a defined pilot, but not for assuming a national network may simply begin “sensing” domestic audiences. Under the federal Privacy Act, a government institution may collect personal information only where it relates directly to its operating program or activity. It generally may use that information only for the purpose for which it was obtained or a consistent use, and may disclose it without consent only under the Act’s specified exceptions. 7 The Charter also guarantees freedom of thought, belief, opinion and expression, including press and other media, subject only to justified limits prescribed by law. 8

Those are not procedural details. They determine whether a program aimed at identifying coordinated foreign conduct stays focused on attributable foreign activity, public content and demonstrable threat indicators, or drifts toward mapping lawful Canadians’ beliefs, associations and political debate. A contractor’s role would not remove the need for a clear public mandate, data rules and accountable decision-making when it performs functions for the state.

Sweden’s Psychological Defence Agency offers a more limited comparator than the proposal suggests. Its published mission is to coordinate and support other actors, identify and analyze malign information influence directed at Sweden by antagonistic foreign powers, and strengthen resilience. The agency says it does not monitor or register what is expressed or by whom in Sweden’s information environment, and describes safeguarding freedom of expression and an open society as the purpose of psychological defence. 9 That is a useful boundary for comparison, not proof that a Canadian agency with broader authority would work.

Evidence supports concern, not a quantified return on investment

There is ample evidence that Canadians encounter questionable online information. Statistics Canada reported that 73% of Canadians in the 2022 Canadian Internet Use Survey had seen online content they suspected was false or inaccurate in the previous 12 months; 59% said they were very or extremely concerned about online misinformation in 2023. The agency cautioned that its surveys did not directly measure respondents’ ability to identify misinformation, which limits conclusions about real-world effects or the performance of countermeasures. 10

The government likewise reports concrete but bounded harms. It says Canadians lost more than $300 million to investment fraud in 2022, including victims of deceptive social-media advertising and cryptocurrency scams. That figure cannot be scaled into a national FIMI-loss total without a stated causal model, population, time period and counterfactual. 6

McMahon’s article labels its C$50 billion-to-C$120 billion annual estimate “conservative,” but cites a prior LinkedIn post rather than a transparent study. The article does not define what losses are included, explain how foreign manipulation is separated from domestic misinformation, fraud, poor information or market conditions, or show how double counting is prevented. It therefore is a claim, not a verified baseline or a funding ceiling. 1

Independent scholarship gives a reason to avoid treating the term “cognitive warfare” as a ready-made measurement system. A 2024 conceptual analysis found the NATO Allied Command Transformation concept broad and difficult to apply empirically because of its many attributes and limited real-world instances. A 2025 legal analysis of AI-supported countermeasures concluded that causality and attribution are difficult to establish and that state intervention must be based in law and strictly proportionate. 11 12

What a pilot would have to demonstrate

A defensible next step would be a time-limited, legislated pilot centered on public, open-source evidence of coordinated foreign information operations affecting defined democratic processes. It should not be authorized to label domestic criticism, disagreement, satire or unpopular speech as hostile activity. The pilot’s aim would be to improve detection, attribution and warning—not to “command” a national narrative.

Before operational use, Parliament and the responsible minister should publish the program’s statutory purpose, data categories, retention periods, disclosure paths, platform-contact rules, attribution threshold, correction process and independent review arrangements. A public vendor register and conflict-of-interest rules would be essential if commercial analytics firms provide tools or data. These are conditions for a test, not confirmed obligations in the present record. They follow from the Commission’s privacy-first recommendation and from the existing legal framework. 5 7 8

The pilot should be judged against pre-announced measures that can fail. Relevant tests include whether analysts correctly distinguish confirmed coordinated foreign activity from ordinary domestic conversation; whether warnings reach affected institutions in time; whether public attributions are later sustained by disclosed evidence; how many false positives are corrected; how much identifiable information is retained or shared; and whether independent privacy, legal and technical reviewers find noncompliance. A rise in alerts, content removals or media mentions would demonstrate activity, not protective effect.

Canada’s official response already embraces portions of this design: RRM Canada uses open-source analysis, discloses operations where appropriate and works with government, industry and international partners; the G7 framework emphasizes national strategies, governance, capacity, civil society and multilateral engagement while calling for expression safeguards and protection of marginalized groups. 3 13 The missing evidence is not that foreign manipulation exists. It is whether the much broader Canadian network McMahon proposes can improve resilience at an acceptable cost without weakening the privacy, expression and institutional trust it aims to defend.

References

1 Dave McMahon, “A National Cognitive Defence Strategy for Canada”

2 Land Offset, “Canada’s defense narrative challenge is bigger than messaging”

3 Global Affairs Canada, “Rapid Response Mechanism Canada”

4 Government of Canada, “Protect yourself and others from disinformation”

5 Public Inquiry Into Foreign Interference, Final Report, Volume 5

6 Government of Canada, “Online disinformation”

7 Justice Laws Website, Privacy Act, sections 4–8

8 Justice Laws Website, Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, sections 1–2

9 Swedish Psychological Defence Agency, “Our mission”

10 Statistics Canada, “The spread of misinformation”

11 Christoph Deppe and Gary S. Schaal, “Cognitive warfare: a conceptual analysis of the NATO ACT cognitive warfare exploratory concept”

12 Henning Lahmann, Bart Custers and Benjamyn I. Scott, “The fundamental rights risks of countering cognitive warfare with artificial intelligence”

13 Global Affairs Canada, “The Framework to Counter Foreign State Information Manipulation”

Update — Sept. 8, 2026: Canada’s cognitive-defence case needs a narrower mandate and an auditable evidence base

Dek: Dave McMahon identifies real coordination and domestic open-source intelligence gaps in Canada’s response to foreign information threats. But his proposed private-sector-led network would overlap existing institutions, raise serious rights and accountability problems, and rests on an annual harm estimate that cannot be independently reproduced.

By PAI
Sept. 9, 2026
OTTAWA —

Dave McMahon’s call for a Canadian “cognitive defence” strategy starts from a legitimate problem. Foreign information manipulation and interference can exploit social divisions, create confusion during crises and elections, and work alongside cyber-enabled fraud and espionage. Canada’s public architecture is dispersed, and it has no publicly documented, standing body with a clear, privacy-authorized mandate to monitor the domestic online information environment for foreign information manipulation and interference, or FIMI, outside the election context. Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue identified that gap and called for a privacy-respecting framework for domestic open-source intelligence, or OSINT, as well as consideration of a law-compliant government entity to exchange information with appropriate partners. 2

That conclusion does not establish that Canada has no relevant coordination or resilience capacity. Nor does it support a broad domestic surveillance system, a private-sector-led intelligence hub or an unqualified C$50 billion to C$120 billion annual harm figure. McMahon’s Sept. 8 LinkedIn article proposes a National Centre for Cognitive Resilience, or NCCR, reporting to the Privy Council Office; a Canadian Cognitive Threat Intelligence Exchange; algorithmic audits; and a federated network in which private firms provide sensing, analysis and rapid response. 3 The case for improvement is real. The case for this architecture, as presented, is not yet made.

The economic claim does not clear a publication standard

McMahon writes that foreign information manipulation, “distortion and disinformation” cost Canada “$50B–$120B” annually and calls the estimate conservative. The displayed note links only to the author’s own LinkedIn post and attached presentation, The Economics of Lies and Deception. The public material does not specify whether the claim is in Canadian or U.S. dollars. It provides no reproducible component table, dataset, attribution coefficient, calculation worksheet, confidence interval or aggregation that derives either endpoint. It also supplies an incompatible total of $45 billion to $80 billion. 3 4

The result is not a Canadian annual estimate that can be verified, much less a conservative lower bound. The presentation lists candidate costs — fraud, cyber incidents, trade disruption, market volatility, productivity, trust and public spending — but no causal model or anti-overlap rule. It establishes neither foreign attribution nor a counterfactual. Temporary market-value movements and disrupted trade flows are not necessarily realized losses.

Canada does have substantial, narrower evidence of harm. The Council of Canadian Academies estimated that COVID-19 misinformation associated with vaccine hesitancy resulted in at least C$300 million in hospital and intensive-care costs from March through November 2021. It was a defined, pandemic-specific counterfactual; it did not annualize the result or attribute the misinformation to foreign actors. 5 The Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre recorded C$643.7 million in fraud losses reported in 2024, including C$481.6 million classified as cyber-enabled; it later reported more than C$704 million in 2025 losses. These data document reported fraud, not harm caused by FIMI. 6 7

Statistics Canada also reports nearly C$16.3 billion in self-reported individual fraud losses over the five years ending in 2019, and C$1.2 billion in 2023 business cyber-incident recovery spending plus C$11 billion in prevention and detection spending. These differently scoped measures cannot be aggregated into a FIMI total. 8 9

A 2026 Sopra Steria global scenario study does not cure the gap. It combines fake-review-influenced spending, valuation movements, fraud, platform revenue and response costs, and acknowledges causation, geographic and overlap limits. It is not a Canadian FIMI estimate. 10 A future range needs common definitions, independent attribution, causal controls, realized-loss valuation, uncertainty analysis and an anti-double-counting matrix. Until then, no published, reproducible Canadian estimate establishes an annual dollar total for harm caused by FIMI or disinformation.

What Canada already has — and what it does not

The central issue is not institutional emptiness but a boundary problem. The Privy Council Office’s National Security, Intelligence and International Affairs branch supports Cabinet and the prime minister through security, intelligence and National Security Council secretariats. The National Security and Intelligence Adviser coordinates national-security decisions, intelligence flow, incidents and strategic communications. 11 12 Public Safety’s National Counter Foreign Interference Coordinator is tasked with improving collaboration and timely response advice. 13

Global Affairs Canada’s Rapid Response Mechanism Canada has conducted multilingual OSINT monitoring and analysis of foreign information threats since 2018, contributes to collective responses, supports the Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections Task Force, or SITE, and serves as secretariat to the G7 Rapid Response Mechanism. SITE brings together CSIS, the Communications Security Establishment, the RCMP and Global Affairs Canada to coordinate threat assessment during federal electoral processes. 14 15

Other institutions hold distinct pieces of the problem. CSIS investigates defined foreign-influenced threats; the RCMP investigates criminal foreign-actor interference; and CSE provides foreign intelligence and tightly constrained cyber capabilities. The Cyber Centre works with industry on resilience. Canadian Heritage funds civic and media-literacy projects; the foreign-influence registry concerns qualifying foreign-principal arrangements, not online monitoring. 16 17 18

Function Existing Canadian capability Remaining public-record gap
Central strategy and assessment PCO, NSIA and National Security Council secretariats Clear PCO–Public Safety division and public-facing implementation
Foreign-interference coordination Public Safety coordinator; CSIS and RCMP roles Single visible reporting and follow-up route for affected communities
FIMI and election OSINT GAC RRM and election-bounded SITE Standing, privacy-authorized domestic FIMI OSINT outside election periods
Cyber technical resilience CSE and Cyber Centre partnerships A non-cyber, rights-governed FIMI information-sharing protocol
Civic resilience Canadian Heritage grants and research Sustained, evaluated delivery and trusted local engagement

This is why an NCCR designed as an all-source fusion, deconfliction, crisis-coordination and strategic-communications headquarters could duplicate PCO, Public Safety, RRM, SITE, CSE, CSIS, the RCMP and Canadian Heritage. Hogue did not recommend a PCO-reporting “cognitive” agency. She recommended resolving the roles of PCO and Public Safety, establishing a whole-of-government strategy and considering a government entity with a lawful domestic-OSINT framework and partnerships with civil society and private organizations. 2

The central governance concern: privatized domestic intelligence

The strongest concern in McMahon’s model is not that companies should be excluded. Platforms, telecommunications providers, cybersecurity firms, researchers, journalists and community organizations have data, expertise and trust that government does not. The concern is assigning a private-sector-led network the functions of domestic sensing, intelligence fusion, “rapid disruption,” attribution and influence response while the state provides funding, deconfliction and special authorities. That structure risks creating public power without public-law accountability.

A contractor that monitors speakers, communities or inferred beliefs for the state, or pressures a platform at its direction, may engage Charter interests despite being nominally private. Persistent monitoring raises expression, privacy and equality concerns. PIPEDA governs many commercial partners; the Privacy Act limits federal collection, use and disclosure. Neither authorizes a prospective personal-data feed. The Security of Canada Information Disclosure Act applies to qualifying federal-institution disclosures, not exchanges with companies or civil society. 19 20 21

A domestic system must be conduct- and threat-based, not viewpoint-based. Foreign interference is deliberate and covert foreign-state activity; it is not ordinary criticism, lawful protest, diaspora advocacy or disagreement with government policy. CSIS’s statutory definition excludes lawful advocacy, protest and dissent unless connected to specified threats. 16 “Narrative” tracking that slides from coordinated foreign conduct to unpopular opinion would create a predictable chilling effect and undermine the legitimacy that resilience policy seeks to protect.

Canada has no general federal authority to compel recommender-system audits or direct platform moderation for a national FIMI program. Provenance can document history when present; it does not prove truth, and its absence does not prove falsity or foreign control. 22 Covert capability, shaping and “defend-forward” language is unsuitable for a civilian domestic framework. CSE cyber authorities cannot be directed at Canadians, persons in Canada or Canadian infrastructure; they are not a domestic cognitive-operations power. 23

A lawful test before a permanent institution

Sweden and Finland offer design lessons in civilian coordination; NATO’s cognitive-warfare work is a developing military concept; and the U.K.’s RESIST is an evaluation-oriented communications process. None establishes that a Canadian hub would reduce interference or justifies domestic surveillance. 24 25 26 27

A defensible next step is a nine-month, civilian, reversible pilot, not a standing network. Its first track should be a bilingual, preregistered randomized evaluation of voluntary, nonpartisan literacy modules on manipulation techniques such as impersonation, false dichotomies and emotional manipulation. Research supports short-term improvements in recognition and stated sharing discernment from technique-focused “prebunking,” but not claims about population-level avoided losses or a mandate to monitor people. 28

The second track should be a tabletop and historical-case exchange using aggregate public information, consented data or de-identified technical artefacts. It must not collect private communications; profile audiences; monitor lawful groups, journalists or protesters; accuse accounts; request takedowns; conduct covert influence; or use military or intelligence authorities. Vendors may supply bounded analysis, but a civilian government coordinator retains responsibility. No participant should decide truth or target Canadians.

Before launch, government should publish a protocol, data dictionary, vendor register, retention schedule, access-log policy, privacy and Charter assessments, external ethics review and consultation record. An independent cross-party advisory group should oversee it. NSIRA, the Privacy Commissioner and an independent technical auditor should inspect data flows, contracts, models and incident records. The pilot should sunset unless Parliament authorizes a successor after public evaluation.

Decision rules must be measurable. Test change against a neutral control in balanced discernment of accurate and manipulative nonpartisan items, immediately and at 30 and 90 days. Also measure simulated verification and sharing, calibrated confidence and any decline in trust in accurate information or willingness to criticize government. Track assessment time, inter-rater reliability, insufficient-evidence closures, attribution confidence, retention compliance, complaints, privacy incidents and disparate effects. Engagement, impressions, sentiment and raw “threat” volume are not success measures.

Scale should occur only if the effect persists at follow-up, independent reviewers find no privacy, expression, equity or scope breach, and a public assessment demonstrates that the pilot fills rather than relabels an existing institutional function. That is a more credible route to cognitive resilience: strengthen citizens and institutions against identifiable foreign manipulation while preserving the open democratic discourse that hostile actors seek to exploit.

References

  1. Land Offset, “Canada’s defense narrative challenge is bigger than messaging”
  2. Hogue Commission, Final Report, Volume 5
  3. Dave McMahon, “A National Cognitive Defence Strategy for Canada”
  4. Dave McMahon, “The Economics of Lies and Deception”
  5. Council of Canadian Academies, Fault Lines
  6. Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre, Annual Statistics Report 2024
  7. Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre, “Top 10 frauds in 2025”
  8. Statistics Canada, “Self-reported fraud in Canada, 2019”
  9. Statistics Canada, “Impact of cybercrime on Canadian businesses, 2023”
  10. Sopra Steria, “The global economic impact of disinformation”
  11. Privy Council Office, National Security, Intelligence and International Affairs mandate
  12. Privy Council Office, National Security and Intelligence Adviser mandate letter
  13. Government of Canada, protecting democratic institutions from foreign interference
  14. Global Affairs Canada, Rapid Response Mechanism Canada
  15. Government of Canada, SITE Task Force
  16. Canadian Security Intelligence Service Act
  17. Canadian Heritage, Digital Citizen Program
  18. Public Safety Canada, foreign-influence registry
  19. Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents Act
  20. Privacy Act
  21. Security of Canada Information Disclosure Act
  22. NIST, “Reducing Risks Posed by Synthetic Content”
  23. Communications Security Establishment Act
  24. Swedish Psychological Defence Agency
  25. Finland, Security Strategy for Society
  26. NATO ACT, Cognitive Warfare Concept
  27. U.K. Government Communications, RESIST 3
  28. Science Advances, “Psychological inoculation improves resilience against misinformation on social media”