China’s anti-carrier strategy is forcing the Pentagon to rethink how it projects power in the Western Pacific — and the budget numbers show the response is already underway at industrial scale.
Keith King, a former White House lead communications engineer and strategic advisor, outlined the challenge in a widely shared analysis this week. Chinese researchers have published a long-range concept for threatening U.S. Navy carrier strike groups using satellites, artificial intelligence and missile forces. The scenario underscores Beijing’s broader effort to hold major American military assets at risk farther from China’s coastline, extending the threat envelope across the wider Western Pacific.
The central challenge is not simply missile range. It is the ability to find, identify, track and target a fast-moving naval force across vast ocean distances while maintaining reliable communications and surviving countermeasures. That requires an integrated network of space-based sensors, aircraft, ships, data links, command systems and precision weapons — a kill chain of extraordinary complexity.
China’s military modernization is increasingly focused on this type of integrated capability. Reports of realistic mock-ups of U.S. warships used for target practice reinforce the message that the People’s Liberation Army is investing in systems designed to complicate American power projection in a Taiwan or regional contingency.
The U.S. Response: Disperse, Defend, Strike Back
The American answer is not a single program. It is a portfolio spanning hypersonic strike, missile defense, electronic warfare, unmanned platforms, distributed force design and command-and-control architecture. King noted the U.S. response includes dispersing forces, operating from greater distances, strengthening allied access, improving missile defenses and developing more resilient communications and sensing networks.
The contest is becoming less about any single platform and more about which side can preserve awareness, mobility and decision-making under attack.
FY2027 Budget: Where the Money Flows
An analysis of the FY2027 President’s Budget request using OffsetGPT defense budget data reveals the scale of investment across programs directly responsive to the anti-carrier threat. All figures are in millions of dollars.
Hypersonic Strike & Long-Range Fires
| Program | Agency | FY2027 ($M) |
|---|---|---|
| Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) — RDTE | Navy | $1,341.4 |
| Long Range Kill Chains | Space Force | $1,392.0 |
| LRASM — Procurement | Navy | $656.7 |
| Offensive Anti-Surface Warfare Weapon Dev | Navy | $104.5 |
| Strategic Mid-Range Fires | Army | $211.8 |
| Strategic Mid-Range Capability | Army | $82.6 |
The Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike program alone commands $1.34 billion in FY2027 RDTE funding — a hypersonic boost-glide weapon designed to hold adversary targets at risk from sea-based platforms, including the DDG-1000 Zumwalt class. The Space Force’s Long Range Kill Chains program at $1.39 billion funds the architecture to close targeting loops across theater distances.
Missile Defense & Ship Self-Defense
| Program | Agency | FY2027 ($M) |
|---|---|---|
| Aegis BMD — RDTE | Missile Defense Agency | $927.9 |
| Aegis BMD — Procurement | Missile Defense Agency | $475.0 |
| SM-3 Block IIA — Procurement | Missile Defense Agency | $444.8 |
| Standard Missile Improvements (SM-6) | Navy | $539.3 |
| Standard Missile — Procurement | Navy | $470.3 |
| Hypersonic Defense | Missile Defense Agency | $213.8 |
| Ship Self Defense (Hard Kill) | Navy | $296.3 |
| Ship Self Defense (Soft Kill/EW) | Navy | $196.8 |
| Ship Self Defense (Detect & Control) | Navy | $156.2 |
| Air & Missile Defense Radar (AMDR) | Navy | $96.6 |
| Rolling Airframe Missile — Procurement | Navy | $122.4 |
| Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile — Procurement | Navy | $503.4 |
The SM-6 is the Navy’s Swiss Army knife — capable of anti-air warfare, ballistic missile defense and anti-surface strike from a single cell. Combined RDTE and procurement for Standard Missile variants exceeds $1 billion. The Missile Defense Agency’s Hypersonic Defense program at $213.8 million is developing the interceptor technology specifically designed to defeat the maneuvering hypersonic threats China is fielding.
Electronic Warfare & Sensing
| Program | Agency | FY2027 ($M) |
|---|---|---|
| Next Generation Jammer Inc II — RDTE | Navy | $497.0 |
| Next Generation Jammer — Procurement | Navy | $428.7 |
| ISR & Info Operations | Navy | $274.5 |
| Cognitive Electromagnetic Warfare | Air Force | $50.5 |
| Advanced Hawkeye (E-2D) — RDTE | Navy | $390.3 |
| E-2D AHE — Procurement | Navy | $1,100.8 |
The EA-18G Growler’s Next Generation Jammer represents nearly $926 million across development and procurement — the primary tool for degrading adversary kill chains through electronic attack. The E-2D Advanced Hawkeye at $1.49 billion combined provides the airborne early warning backbone that carrier groups depend on to detect inbound threats.
Unmanned & Distributed Force Design
| Program | Agency | FY2027 ($M) |
|---|---|---|
| MQ-25 Stingray | Navy | $513.3 |
| Unmanned Surface Vehicle Enabling Capabilities | Navy | $255.1 |
| Collaborative Combat Aircraft (Navy) | Navy | $213.9 |
| Collaborative Combat Aircraft (Air Force) | Air Force | $1,373.7 |
| Medium Landing Ship — Procurement | Navy | $800.0 |
The MQ-25 Stingray at $513 million extends carrier air wing range by providing unmanned tanking — a direct response to the standoff problem. Collaborative Combat Aircraft programs across services total $1.59 billion, fielding autonomous wingmen that multiply combat mass without multiplying crew risk. The Medium Landing Ship at $800 million enables the distributed maritime operations concept the Marine Corps is building to complicate adversary targeting.
Command, Control & Kill Chain Architecture
| Program | Agency | FY2027 ($M) |
|---|---|---|
| JADC2 Development & Experimentation | OSD | $2,109.9 |
| Advanced Battle Management System (ABMS) | Air Force | $1,040.9 |
| Surface Combatant Combat System Engineering | Navy | $425.1 |
| Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) | Navy | $409.3 |
| Resilient Missile Warning/Tracking — LEO | Space Force | $3,564.2 |
| Resilient Missile Warning/Tracking — MEO | Space Force | $1,413.7 |
| Space-Based Moving Target Indicator | Space Force | $253.4 |
The largest single line item in this analysis is the Space Force’s Resilient Missile Warning/Tracking LEO constellation at $3.56 billion — the overhead persistent infrared layer designed to detect and track hypersonic and ballistic threats in real time. JADC2 at $2.1 billion funds the connective tissue linking sensors to shooters across all domains.
Directed Energy & Emerging Defense
| Program | Agency | FY2027 ($M) |
|---|---|---|
| Directed Energy and Electric Weapon Systems | Navy | $94.8 |
| Force Protection Applied Research | Navy | $137.8 |
| Electromagnetic Systems Applied Research | Navy | $74.6 |
Directed energy remains in earlier development stages but represents the long-term answer to magazine depth — the problem of running out of interceptors against saturation attacks.
The Strategic Calculus
King’s key takeaways hold: China is prioritizing long-range anti-access capabilities. Carrier groups face a growing sensor and missile threat. Survivability now depends on distributed operations across the Indo-Pacific.
The budget data confirms the Pentagon agrees. Across hypersonic strike, missile defense, electronic warfare, unmanned systems, space-based sensing and kill chain architecture, the FY2027 request allocates more than $23.6 billion to programs directly responsive to the anti-carrier threat.
Future maritime power will belong not only to the nation with the strongest ships, but to the one with the most durable network connecting them. The United States is betting tens of billions that network resilience, distributed lethality and decision speed will outpace China’s ability to find and kill a carrier.
Whether that bet pays off may determine the outcome of the next Pacific crisis.
Budget data sourced from OffsetGPT FY2027 President’s Budget request. Original analysis by Keith King on LinkedIn.
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