As China’s military maneuvers around Taiwan grow increasingly complex, defense analysts are warning of a new, potentially devastating tactic: a “blockade by fire.”
Unlike a traditional maritime blockade, which would require the People’s Liberation Army Navy to intercept commercial vessels and risk direct confrontation with the United States, a blockade by fire would use ballistic missiles to destroy Taiwan’s port infrastructure. [1] This approach would cripple the island’s ability to load and unload cargo, effectively cutting off essential imports without requiring a naval cordon. [2]
In a recent Foreign Affairs article, Eugene Gholz, an associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame, and Kerby Davis, a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, argued that this strategy minimizes military and political risks for Beijing. [1] Their simulations suggest China could reduce Taiwan’s imports to 15 percent of normal levels by launching fewer than 500 missiles over 100 days. [3]
“A blockade by fire would make efficient use of China’s military assets,” Gholz and Davis wrote. “Given the limited number of targets, the Chinese military would be able to reserve the bulk of its capabilities, including the majority of its missile arsenal, to deter the United States and other countries from coming to Taiwan’s aid.” [1]
The threat of a blockade by fire is not purely theoretical. In December 2025, China conducted large-scale military exercises, dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” which simulated a blockade around Taiwan. [4] The drills involved 18 PLAN vessels and 14 China Coast Guard ships, and included live-fire exercises that brought Chinese missiles closer to Taiwan than in previous maneuvers. [4] Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that missiles were fired into contiguous waters just 12 to 24 nautical miles from the island’s coast. [4]
A blockade by fire would exploit Taiwan’s heavy reliance on maritime trade, particularly for energy imports, the majority of which arrive via Kaohsiung, the island’s largest port. [4] By targeting the specialized infrastructure required for modern container shipping — such as massive gantry cranes — China could paralyze Taiwan’s economy while maintaining the narrative that its actions are an internal matter. [1]
Because international commercial ships would not be directly targeted at sea, third-party nations would have less justification to intervene. [1] “The destruction would be limited to Taiwanese assets, helping Beijing maintain its argument that the operation was strictly an internal matter and ensuring that international powers couldn’t claim a greater need to intervene,” Gholz and Davis noted. [1]
To counter this threat, analysts argue Taiwan must look beyond traditional missile defense systems, which are prohibitively expensive and could easily be overwhelmed by China’s vast arsenal of short-range ballistic missiles like the DF-11 and DF-15. [1] [5]
Instead, Taiwan’s best hope for deterrence lies in resilience. Gholz and Davis recommend that Taiwan stockpile essential items and repair materials, and conduct exercises focused on operating ports under crisis conditions. [1] They also suggest Taiwan and its partners build a reserve of roll-on, roll-off cargo vessels, which can unload wheeled vehicles without the need for dedicated port infrastructure. [1]
Taiwanese officials appear to be taking these warnings seriously. In June 2026, Taiwan’s National Security Council conducted a tabletop exercise simulating a Chinese maritime blockade, focusing on interagency responses to Chinese coast guard inspections and vessel seizures. [6]
As China continues to refine its coercive options, the concept of a blockade by fire underscores the need for Taiwan to adapt its defense strategy. “To maintain deterrence against a blockade by fire, Taiwan and those hoping to help it need to first acknowledge such an option and then dynamically adapt the island’s defenses to deter and survive this alternative approach,” Gholz and Davis concluded. [1]
References
- The War China Might Choose — Foreign Affairs
- Blockade by Fire: China’s Potential to Blockade Taiwan Using Missile Attacks on Ports — Belfer Center
- Analysts say China could target Taiwan ports with missiles — Taiwan News
- Special Report: Surprise PRC Military Exercise Around Taiwan — ISW
- Commander’s Toolkit: PLARF — Air University
- Taiwan simulates countering a Chinese maritime blockade in tabletop drill — Reuters
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