RAND Report Highlights Maintenance Challenges in China's Rapidly Expanding Naval Fleet

A new research report from the RAND Corporation examines the maintenance management practices of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) as it grapples with a rapidly expanding and modernizing fleet. The report, titled “The People’s Liberation Army Navy’s Approach to Maintenance Management: Cooking Dumplings in a Teapot,” was published in June 2026 and authored by Cristina L. Garafola, Joslyn Fleming, Sam Wallace, Bradley Martin, and Sale Lilly (Garafola et al., 2026).

The PLAN has undergone unprecedented growth, doubling its destroyer fleet from 20 vessels in 2003 to 42 in 2023 (CSIS, 2024). The Chinese navy currently operates a battle force of over 370 platforms, including major surface combatants and submarines, making it the largest navy in the world by number of vessels (Congressional Research Service, 2025). The RAND report notes that the PLAN has transitioned from iteratively designing small ship classes to the series production of larger, more sophisticated classes, such as the Type 052D and Type 055 destroyers (Garafola et al., 2026).

While this series production could theoretically streamline maintenance requirements, the RAND researchers found that the growing technological sophistication of these new vessels is raising the bar for the types and quality of maintenance required. The report indicates that even “hero maintainers”—highly experienced senior non-commissioned officers frequently lauded in Chinese military media—are struggling to keep pace with the technological demands of the modern fleet (Garafola et al., 2026).

The breakneck pace of Chinese ship production has created downstream implications for maintenance management across the fleet. According to the RAND analysis, if the overhaul rates of newer ship classes remain consistent with those of older destroyer classes, the PLAN will face a substantial “surge” in overhaul demand. Overhauls for China’s most capable surface combatants are projected to begin in 2031 and last through at least 2042 (Garafola et al., 2026).

Additionally, PLAN sources describe growing pressure on support forces due to ships operating farther from home ports, an increasing number of naval aircraft integrated into units, and higher operational tempos at supporting organizations like vessel training centers. While the PLAN has focused on improving maintenance self-sufficiency, organic maintenance units still primarily undertake surface-level repairs and remain dependent on higher maintenance echelons for sophisticated work (Garafola et al., 2026).

This new publication builds upon a previous 2023 RAND report by Joslyn Fleming and Cristina Garafola, which examined the broader logistics and maintenance approaches of the People’s Liberation Army (Fleming et al., 2023).

References

Center for Strategic and International Studies. (2024, June 5). Unpacking China’s Naval Buildup. CSIS. Unpacking China’s Naval Buildup

Congressional Research Service. (2025, May 5). China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities. CRS. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33153

Fleming, J., Garafola, C. L., Yoshiara, E., Lilly, S., & Dale-Huang, A. (2023). Kicking the Tires? The People’s Liberation Army’s Approach to Maintenance Management. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1995-1.html

Garafola, C. L., Fleming, J., Wallace, S., Martin, B., & Lilly, S. (2026). The People’s Liberation Army Navy’s Approach to Maintenance Management: Cooking Dumplings in a Teapot. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3368-1.html

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